可持续的未来 自给自足的城镇？
埃隆·马斯克提出了一个“可持续未来”的愿景。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkManNuuYog
这是一种技术最大化的未来。然而，在书籍《这个文明已结束：关于帝国终结及其后果的对话》中，我们发现社会可能面临三种近期的结局：
(1) 这个文明可能会因气候不稳定而完全崩溃（例如，导致灾难性的粮食短缺作为崩溃的可能机制），或者可能更早地通过核战争、疫情或金融崩溃导致大规模的社会崩溃。这些情况中的任何一种都可能部分受到生态/气候不稳定的影响，就像达尔富尔和叙利亚一样。
(2) 这个文明（我们）将设法在其崩溃时培育出未来的继承文明。
(3) 这个文明将以某种方式设法在时间上迅速而彻底地进行自我转型，以一种前所未有的方式，及时避免崩溃。
第二种选择基本上意味着设计基于地方生产和消费的自给自足的未来城镇，或许还与附近城镇进行贸易。这些城镇不能依赖任何无法维持的支持形式，包括几乎所有的电子设备。
构建“指导原则”以结构化一个自给自足的城镇将是很有趣的。
例如，建造一个机械风车，将水抽到一个位于高地的人造湖中。这是由简单的技术（铁管、地球工程等）制成的。它为一个由岩石和土壤构成的简单过滤系统提供水源。深钻孔可以提供热水。一个以食物和以物易物为基础的经济将会存在，等等。
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Elon has suggested the vision of a "sustainable future"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkManNuuYog<p>This is a technology-maximized future. However, in the book
"This Civilisation is Finished: Conversations on the end of Empire - and what lies beyond"
we find that there are 3 likely near-term endgames for society<p>(1) This civilisation could collapse utterly and terminally, as a result
of climatic instability (leading for instance to catastrophic food short-
ages as a probable mechanism of collapse), or possibly sooner than
that, through nuclear war, pandemic, or financial collapse leading
to mass civil breakdown. Any of these are likely to be precipitated in
part by ecological/climate instability, as Darfur and Syria were. Or<p>(2) This civilisation (we) will manage to seed a future successor-civil-
isation(s), as this one collapses. Or<p>(3) This civilisation will somehow manage to transform itself delib-
erately, radically and rapidly, in an unprecedented manner, in time
to avert collapse.<p>The second option basically amounts to designing future towns that
are self-sufficient based on local production and consumption, perhaps
with trading skills with nearby towns. The towns could not rely on any
form of support they could not maintain. This includes virtually all
electronics.<p>It would be interesting to construct "guidelines" for structuring
a self-sustaining town.<p>For example, constructing a mechanical windmill that pumps water
to a man-made lake on very high ground. This is made from simple
technology (iron for pipes, geo-engineering, etc). It feeds a
simple filtration system constructed from rocks and soil. Deep
drilled holes could provide heated water. A food and barter economy
would prevail, etc.<p>Thoughts?