如今几乎不可能找到自由职业的项目。
古典经济学认为，从长远来看，无法违背充分就业或饱和任何市场，<i>放任自流</i>或自由贸易是常态。不用说，古典框架是基于一些理性假设，比如没有竞争的进入壁垒、信息的自由流动、理性行为者按照自身利益行事等。然而，基于这些基本假设，市场确实在几十年和几个世纪以来似乎一直如此运作。而且，这种情况不仅仅发生在自由职业市场，也适用于大多数全球市场。
“长期衰退”或“长期饱和”的现象是前所未有的，历史上首次出现。从我所阅读和观看的新闻来看，这似乎发生在几乎所有行业，但自由职业市场直接影响到我。虽然短期的过度和异常现象的修正确实在过去影响了经济活动（例如世界大战），但这些并不是特别的时期。更广泛的叙述是，尽管各地的繁荣、GDP产出和股市盈利不断增加，但中产阶级却越来越难以找到每一口食物来满足他们的需求。
回到Upwork，必须购买连接的巨大进入壁垒本身就是一个问题的症状。这表明供需比严重倾斜于客户；根据古典假设，这应该在理性市场中自我修正，但这种情况已经持续了好几年。
供需比不健康的另一个原因是事物的“品牌化”，这是过度消费主义的症状。这不仅仅是关于自由职业，而是人类之间日益增加的愤世嫉俗和缺乏信任。人们对同类失去了同情心，他们宁愿信任像Dominos或McDonald's这样的品牌，而不是在地下室里煮薯条或萨莫萨的小摊贩。他们宁愿信任Infosys或Tech Mahindra，而不是那些努力谋生的小自由职业者。
从他们的角度来看，他们可能是对的。苹果可以提供24小时的支持，而我做不到，我最多只能在规定时间内回复电子邮件或消息。还有一个人类的局限性，即单个自由职业者能够提供多少编码、测试、部署和支持。这是否意味着个人自由职业者的时代终于要结束，只有大企业和机构才能最终繁荣？
我能看到自由职业作为职业选择真正复兴的唯一途径，是整个社会从其通常的愤世嫉俗的蓝色药丸泡沫中醒来，开始对同类人类（而不仅仅是品牌、GPT和平台等抽象实体）产生一些信任。
祝你有美好的一天，愿逻各斯保佑大家！
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Classical Economics says that in the long run, it's impossible to defy full-employment or saturate any market, <i>Lassez Faire</i> or free trade is quite the norm. Needless to say, the classical framework is based on some rational assumptions like no entry barriers to competition, free flow of information, rational actors who act in their own interest, etc. And yet, given these basic assumptions, the market indeed seemed to work that way for decades and centuries. And most global markets too, not just the freelance market.<p>The phenomenon of a "long term recession" or "long term saturation" is an unprecedented one and happening for the first time in history. From the news I read and watch, this seems to be happening in almost all sectors but freelancing is what affecting me directly. While short-term corrections of excesses and anomalies have indeed affected economic activity in the past (like world wars) but these aren't such exceptional times. The broader narrative is one of increasing prosperity, GDP output and stock market profitability all over, yet the middle class struggles more and more to find every morsel to feed their hunger.<p>Coming back to Upwork, a massive entry-barrier in the form of having to purchase connects is itself a problematic symptom. This indicates that supply/demand ratio is heavily tilted in favor of clients; again, this should self-correct itself in a rational market given the classical assumptions but it has carried on for several years now.<p>Another reason for an unhealthy supply/demand ratio is "brandification" of things which is a symptom of excessive consumerism. This isn't about just freelancing but the increasing cynicism and lack of trust of humans towards one another. Humans have lost empathy towards fellow human, they'd rather trust a Dominos or McDonalds than the little guy cooking French Fries or Samosas in the basement. They'd rather trust an Infosys or Tech Mahindra than the little freelancer who is struggling to make a living.<p>And from their perspective, they could be right. Apple can give them 24x7 support which I can't, the most I can do is respond to emails or messages within a specified time. There is also the human limitation of how much Coding, Testing, Deployment and Support a single individual freelancer could provide. Does it mean the age of individual freelancers is finally coming to an end, and only big businesses and agencies will eventually thrive?<p>The only way I can see real revival of freelancing as career option happening is if society at large wakes up from its usual cynical blue-pilled bubble, and starts having some faith in fellow homo sapiens like them, not just abstract entities like brands, gpts and platforms.<p>Have a nice day ahead, and may the Logos bless everyone!