问HN：概率思维到底发生了什么？
我一直认为，概率思维是程序员和科技与科学领域理性人士所采用的思维方式。<p>最近，我看到一些黑白分明的信息，比如：<p>“我们永远无法治愈衰老。” “我们一生中永远无法实现通用人工智能。” “人工智能的灾难性风险为0% - Lecunn。”等等。<p>科技界的人们怎么会如此绝对地思考？为什么不考虑“嘿，或许我们治愈衰老的机会是10%，或者我们全都可能面临10%的死亡风险，而这些都是极其重要的”呢？毕竟，难道不是显而易见的，概率 * 影响力 = 影响吗？
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I thought probabilistic thinking was the way programmers and rational people in the tech & science world used.<p>Lately I see b&w messaging like:<p>"We will never cure aging". "We will never reach AGI in our lifetimes". "AI has 0% of catastrophic risk - Lecunn". Etc.<p>How can people in tech think in absolutes? Why not think "hey, maybe there is 10% we cure aging or 10% chance we all die and these are super important"? After all isn't it obvious to everybody that probability * magnitute = impact?