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我花了20年时间构建后端系统，过去12年专注于云基础设施。现在，我开始朝另一个方向发展。我的论点不是“本地人工智能更好”，而是构建可信替代品的窗口正在关闭。苹果、谷歌、亚马逊都在关注本地推理的可行性。他们的回应将是“本地”人工智能，它会与云端连接——在设备上处理的同时，强制要求云端功能，隐私营销也会伴随遥测要求。一旦这些默认设置推出，替代品的存在就无关紧要了。大多数人在便利的选择已经存在时，从不会去寻找其他选项。搜索、社交、移动、云服务——这一模式不断重复。我一直在问的问题是：如果本地优先的替代品无法赢得市场份额，构建它们是否还有意义？我目前的答案是肯定的——一个可信的退出选项的存在会改变平台的行为，即使大多数用户从未使用过。但我也意识到这可能只是一种自我安慰。自托管的群体在每一场重大斗争中都失败了。电子邮件、消息传递、社交——私人选项每次都只停留在小众。也许人工智能是不同的，因为这些模型终于能够在小规模下运行。也许并非如此。我正在这个领域构建一些东西。想知道其他人是否也看到同样的机会，还是我只是在将个人偏好合理化为市场需求。

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I've spent 20 years building backend systems and the last 12 on cloud infrastructure. Now I'm betting the other way.The thesis isn't "local AI is better." It's that the window to build credible alternatives is closing. Apple, Google, Amazon are all watching local inference become viable. Their response will be "local" AI that phones home - on-device processing with cloud-mandatory features, privacy marketing with telemetry requirements.Once those defaults ship, it doesn't matter if alternatives exist. Most people never look for options once something convenient is already there. Search, social, mobile, cloud - the pattern repeats.The question I keep asking: does building local-first alternatives matter if they don't win market share? My current answer is yes - the existence of a credible exit changes how platforms behave, even if most users never take it.But I'm also aware this could be cope. The self-hosting crowd has lost every major battle. Email, messaging, social - private options stayed niche every time. Maybe AI is different because the models are finally capable at small sizes. Maybe it isn't.Building something in this space. Curious if others see the same window, or if I'm just rationalizing a preference into a market.

问HN：本地优先的人工智能窗口期是否正在缩小？