在美国移民中，每35,385人中就有1人在明尼苏达州是犯罪的无证移民。
我查阅了美国在向明尼苏达州派遣移民和海关执法局（ICE）之前的数据：
在美国生活的每35,385名移民中，大约有1名是生活在明尼苏达州的无证移民，并且有犯罪记录。
换句话说：明尼苏达州的犯罪无证移民人口占美国所有外籍居民的0.0028%。
第一步：从明尼苏达州的无证移民人口开始
• 明尼苏达州有130,000名无证移民（皮尤研究中心，2023年）
第二步：应用犯罪定罪率
• 使用1%的犯罪率：130,000 × 0.01 = 1,300人
第三步：与美国总移民人口进行比较
• 美国总外籍居民为46,000,000人。
• 1,300 ÷ 46,000,000 = 0.0028% = 1 in 35,385
估计范围
• 保守估计：1 in 45,365 (0.0022%)
使用来自经过同行评审的CATO研究所关于德克萨斯州无证移民的实证测量的0.78%定罪率。
~1,014名犯罪无证移民在明尼苏达州
• 中等估计：1 in 35,385 (0.0028%)
使用1%的犯罪率，与边境逮捕数据一致。
~1,300名犯罪无证移民在明尼苏达州
• 自由派估计：1 in 32,168 (0.0031%)
使用2024年对于有前科者的边境逮捕率1.1%。
~1,430名犯罪无证移民在明尼苏达州
来源参考
皮尤研究中心 - 全国无证移民人口（1400万）：
https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-reached-a-record-14-million-in-2023
皮尤/Axios - 明尼苏达州无证移民人口（130,000）：
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2025/08/25/minnesota-unauthorized-immigrant-population-pew
USAFacts - 边境犯罪定罪率（约1%）：
https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-people-apprehended-at-us-borders-have-a-prior-criminal-conviction/country/united-states/
CATO研究所 - 定罪率研究（0.78%）：
https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2020-10/working-paper-60.pdf
移民政策研究所 - 美国总外籍人口（4600万）：
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/content/immigrants-and-crime
USAFacts - 明尼苏达州移民数据：
https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-immigrants-are-in-the-us/state/minnesota/
结论：根据使用的犯罪率不同，明尼苏达州的犯罪无证移民人口占美国所有移民的比例在1 in 32,000到1 in 45,000之间。
查看原文
I dug around in the data the U.S. had prior to sending ICE into Minnesota:<p>Out of every 35,385 immigrants living in the United States, approximately 1 is an undocumented immigrant with a criminal record who lives in Minnesota.
Put another way: Minnesota's criminal undocumented immigrant population represents 0.0028% of all foreign-born residents in America.<p>Step 1: Start with Minnesota's undocumented population
• 130,000 undocumented immigrants live in Minnesota (Pew Research, 2023)<p>Step 2: Apply criminal conviction rate
• Using 1% criminal rate: 130,000 × 0.01 = 1,300 individuals<p>Step 3: Compare to total U.S. immigrant population
• 46,000,000 total foreign-born residents in the U.S.
• 1,300 ÷ 46,000,000 = 0.0028% = 1 in 35,385<p>The Range of Estimates
• Conservative Estimate: 1 in 45,365 (0.0022%)
Uses the empirically measured 0.78% conviction rate from peer-reviewed CATO Institute research on Texas undocumented immigrants.<p>~1,014 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN
• Moderate Estimate: 1 in 35,385 (0.0028%)
Uses a 1% criminal rate, which aligns with border apprehension data.<p>~1,300 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN
• Liberal Estimate: 1 in 32,168 (0.0031%)
Uses the 2024 border apprehension rate of 1.1% for those with prior criminal convictions.<p>~1,430 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN<p>Source References
Pew Research - National undocumented population (14M):
https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-reached-a-record-14-million-in-2023
Pew/Axios - Minnesota undocumented population (130k):
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2025/08/25/minnesota-unauthorized-immigrant-population-pew
USAFacts - Border criminal conviction rates (~1%):
https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-people-apprehended-at-us-borders-have-a-prior-criminal-conviction/country/united-states/
CATO Institute - Conviction rate research (0.78%):
https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2020-10/working-paper-60.pdf
Migration Policy Institute - Total U.S. foreign-born (46M):
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/content/immigrants-and-crime
USAFacts - Minnesota immigrant data:
https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-immigrants-are-in-the-us/state/minnesota/<p>Bottom line: Depending on which criminal rate you use, Minnesota's criminal undocumented immigrant population represents between 1 in 32,000 and 1 in 45,000 of all immigrants living in America.