问HN：社会将走向何方？是否有计划应对无工作未来？
在过去的十年里，甚至更长时间，我和朋友们以及我已故的父亲一直在讨论这个话题。我常常对他们说——无论你设定时间线多短或多长，墙上的字迹已经显现，最终我们将几乎自动化所有工作。那么，接下来会怎样？社会将如何运作，政府又将如何应对？当没有工作可做时，大家会做些什么？超富阶层又将如何应对看似不可避免的金钱和财富的终结？
我认为，某种形式的全民基本收入是必要的，充其量也只是一个短期的权宜之计。虽然我们可能不会很快（或者永远）实现通用人工智能，但这并不意味着大型语言模型不会继续改进并取代/替代某些工作领域——它们已经在软件行业产生了“足够好的”影响。有人可能会认为体力劳动的工作是安全的，但这仅在波士顿动力公司那类机器人仍然太贵而无法被广泛应用的情况下成立。像所有事物一样，机器人技术的成本将继续下降，人工智能与波士顿动力等技术的融合最终将影响非白领工作。同样，无论你如何设定时间线，这并不是“是否会发生”，而是“何时会发生”。
政府对此一切是否有所意识？他们是否在为一种后货币的世界做规划？当所有工作都被自动化，企业获得更高的利润时，会发生什么？对它们征税是有限度的。如果每个人都失业，谁来购买他们的产品？我们是否正在朝着一种类似《星际迷航》的社会结构发展，在那里金钱不再存在？我曾经和父亲得出结论，这些问题是遥远的未来——这可能仍然是事实——但作为两个不到五岁孩子的父母，我感觉这个未来并没有我想象中那么遥远，我真的很想知道，当他们长到我这个年龄时，会生活在怎样的工作/世界中。
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For the better part of a past decade, probably longer, I've had a running conversation with friends and my father before he passed away about this. I would say to them - set the timeline as short or wide as you like, the writing is on the wall that eventually we will automate virtually all jobs out of existence. Then what? How does society function, how does the government handle this? What will everyone do when there are no jobs left to be done? How will the ultrarich handle the seemingly inevitable end of money and wealth as we know it today?<p>I would argue that something like Universal Basic Income is necessary, and likely a short-term stopgap at best. While we might not reach AGI soon (or ever), that doesn't mean LLM's aren't going to continue to improve and continue to replace / displace job sectors - they're already 'good enough' to have an impact on the software industry. One could argue that physical labor jobs are safe, but that's only true while Boston Dynamics type robots are still too expensive to justify. Like everything, the cost will continue to come down on robotics, and the convergence of AI with something like Boston Dynamics will eventually impact non-white-collar work. Again, set the time-line as you like, it's 'not a will it happen', but a 'when will it happen'.<p>Are governments aware of all this? Are they planning for a sort of post-money world? What happens when all jobs are automated and companies achieve even higher profits? Taxing them more and has its limits. Who is going to buy their products if everyone is out of work? Are we heading toward a sort of Star-Trek style social structure where money is no longer a thing? I used to conclude with my dad that these were problems far off in the future - and that may very well be true still - but having two kids under 5, it feels like this future isn't as far off as it used to be, and I really wonder what kind of work/world they'll be living in when they're my age.