问HN：你预计机器人领域会出现类似ChatGPT的时刻吗？
当前的人形机器人助手仍处于早期阶段——大约相当于GPT-2的水平——它们开始执行一些非常简单且狭窄的任务，但经常出错，仍然无法做太多事情。然而，我在过去几年中一直在关注这一领域的进展，我觉得GPT-3级别的技术可能已经出现，一些初创公司展示了令人印象深刻的成果（例如，关注通用人工智能或物理智能）。此外，这些初创公司获得的资金应该能够将它们的方法扩展到目前尝试的10倍到100倍。我不确定是否真的需要额外的研究突破才能实现可用产品的飞跃。
因此，我们可能很快会在机器人领域看到一个类似ChatGPT的时刻——一款能够执行有用任务的物理机器人将商业化上市：如烹饪、清洁、简单维修、园艺、老年护理等。就像ChatGPT-3.5一样，这些机器人不会很可靠，仍然会显得笨拙或愚蠢，但我认为人们会明显意识到这是一个阶段性变化/范式转变，大多数人会意识到这种转变正在发生。在这个初始阶段之后，它将导致某种全球性的变革（类似于GPT-4）：想象一下，软件工程师当前使用Claude Code的方式，但应用于物理世界，面向每个人，无处不在。好吧，当然是指那些能够负担得起这种机器人的人——我猜它的价格会像一辆高档汽车。
我很好奇这将何时发生，以及拥有物理世界助手的短期和中期后果是什么？我的直觉是，今年有40%的机会会看到这一点，到明年年底则有70%的可能性。我相当确定（90%）在三年内我们会在家庭中拥有一些有用的机器人。我意识到这听起来可能非常乐观，但在ChatGPT发布前两年预测它的出现同样也是一种乐观。
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Current humanoid robotic assistants are in early stage - somewhere around GPT2 level - they're starting to perform very simple, very narrow tasks, but stumble a lot, and still cannot do much. However, I've been tracking the progress in the last couple of years, and I feel that GPT3 level might already be happening, and some startups demonstrate impressive things (e.g. look up Generalist AI or Physical Intelligence). Plus the funding all these startups are getting should allow them to scale their methods 10x-100x to what has been tried so far. I'm not sure any additional research breakthroughs are actually needed to make the leap to usable products.<p>Therefore, we might soon see a ChatGPT moment in robotics - a commercial availability a physical robot that will be capable of performing useful tasks: cooking, cleaning, simple repairs, yard work, elderly care, etc. Just like ChatGPT-3.5, this won't be reliable, and the robots will still be clunky/dumb, but I think it will be obvious there's a step change/phase transition, where most people realize a paradigm shift is happening. Soon after that initial stage, it will lead to something globally transformative (like GPT4): think of how software engineers currently using Claude Code, but applied to physical world, for everyone, everywhere. Well, everyone who can afford a robot like that - I'm guessing it will cost like a premium car.<p>I'm curious when this will happen, and what will be the short and medium term consequences of having physical world assistants? My intuition is there's 40% chance we will see it this year, and 70% by the end of next year. I'm pretty sure (90%) we will have somewhat useful robots in people's houses within 3 years. I do realize this might sound very optimistic, but it would had been just as optimistic to predict ChatGPT two years before it was released.