我们在问正确的问题吗？
随着人工智能的进步以我之前认为无法持续的速度不断推进，我发现科技行业的人们大致分为两类：
- 热衷者，极其高兴地看到“推理”成为一种商品，认为他们终于能够克服自己的自卑感；
- 反对者，试图通过强调人工智能的局限性来应对当前的局面。
当然，还有许多子类别，但这是我注意到的主要两类。
我无法理解的是，为什么讨论没有更深入。我们并不需要人工智能达到极高的水平，它就能对我们的社会和日常生活造成冲击。根据我的经验，我的直觉告诉我，我们已经在“Fable”这一技术上越过了临界点。实际上，即使是“Opus”如果使用得当，也足以应对需求，而“Fable”则使得将模糊的需求/想法转化为可交付的成果变得更加简单。
现在，我知道要让像“Fable”这样的技术在整个经济中得到部署并解决所有低效问题，确保大多数知识工作者有工作和薪水，面临着许多障碍，但潘多拉的盒子已经打开，而且已经打开了一段时间。
随着采用新技术的公司与滞后公司的差距越来越大，经济力量将会非常残酷。
相信自己优势在于优化人工智能工作流程的工程师们将会受到严峻的警醒，因为工具的改进使得一切对用户变得透明，看看像“Claude Code”这样的工具，以及我们在短短12个月内的体验变化。
总结：我惊讶于网上关于我们即将到来的未来的讨论如此之少，以及人们如今热衷的优势将在几年内迅速消失。一些职业可能会比其他职业更安全，但我们是否准备好迎接即将到来的转变？
我主要担心的是社会层面。当然，社会可能不会崩溃，但我们是否在盲目走向一个我们都没有准备好的转变？我很想听听其他对此有所思考的人的看法。
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As AI advancements continue at a pace I believed to be unsustainable up until not long ago, I see folks in the tech industry falling in one of these two groups:<p>- hypers, extremely happy to see "reasoning" becoming a commodity and thinking that they'll finally be able to heal their inferiority complex
- detractors, trying to cope with the current situation by highlighting the limitation of AI<p>There's many sub categories of course, but those are the main ones I notice.<p>What I can't understand is why the discussion doesn't go deeper. We don't need AI to be that great for it to disrupt our societies and daily lives, my gut feeling tells me that we already passed the tipping point with Fable based on my experience. Hell, even Opus is more than enough if used correctly, Fable just made it even simpler to translate vague requirements/ideas into something that's shippable.<p>Now, I know that there's plenty of obstacles towards a technology like Fable to be deployed across the entire economy and solve all inefficiencies that allow most of us knowledge workers to have a job and a salary, but Pandora's box is open, and it's been open for a while.<p>The economical forces will be brutal as the gap between companies adopting new technologies faster and those lagging behind becomes wider and wider.<p>Engineers believing that their edge lies in optimized AI workflows will get a rude awakening as harnesses improve and everything becomes transparent to users, look at tools like Claude Code and how much our experience changed in just 12 months.<p>TL;DR: I'm surprised to find so few conversations online about our impending future and how the edge that people are euphoric about these days will quickly disappear in a matter of years. Some professions will be safer than others, but are we ready for the transition that's upon us?<p>I'm mostly worried on a societal level. Sure, society likely won't collapse, but are we walking blindly into a shift that none of us is ready for? I'd be interested to hear opinions from others that have been thinking about this.