世界过于关注季度收益
每个人似乎都过于关注季度发生的事情——通常没有什么实质性的内容，但人们对此却大做文章。
投资界有两种观点：一种认为市场存在泡沫，另一种则认为一切总是会上涨。两者都是错误的。泡沫是新一波技术发展的固有特征；每个泡沫都是不同的，具有各自的背景和情况。你不应该因为预期会出现泡沫而等待任何事情。你无法准确把握市场时机；应该专注于寻找那些正在开发护城河、增加或转型商业模式的公司，但这些公司尚未完成这些转变。你必须通过分析来弄清楚这一点。仅仅因为你认为苹果公司（AAPL）有一个优秀的品牌，就投资于它，并不能超越指数；其他人也是这样想的。
认为一切都会上涨的阵营在批评那些认为市场存在泡沫的人时是有道理的，因为记忆力的衰退或某家公司业绩不佳。从技术上讲，基本面没有变化，但更广泛的资本周期解释了为什么收益不可持续且是人为的，并且将会崩溃，而对新技术的需求很高，因为公司不想错失机会；最初的热度总会下降，数据中心的积压是一个神话。关于资本周期的更多内容可以在这里找到。
这句话的意思就是，直接购买指数就好了。
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Everybody seems to care way too much about what happens in a quarter- nothing material usually, but people make a huge deal about it.<p>There are two camps in investing: those that think there is a bubble and those that think everything always goes up. There both wrong. Bubbles are inherent with a new wave of technology; each one is different and has its own circumstances. You should not wait for anything because you anticipate one. You cannot time the market well; you should focus on finding companies that either are in the process of developing a moat or adding or transitioning business models, but have not done any of these things yet. You have to analytically figure this out. There is no way to outperform the index by investing in AAPL because you think they have a great brand; so does everyone else.<p>The camp that thinks everything goes up is right to criticize the people that think there is a bubble because memory sold off, or a company had bad earnings. Technically, no fundamentals have changed, but the broader capital cycle explains why earnings are unsustainable and artificial and will collapse, and demand is high for a new technology because firms do not want to miss out; the initial buzz always comes down, data center backlog is a myth. More on the capital cycle here<p>This is a long way of saying just buy the index.