问HN:还有其他人对人工智能的最新发展感到不安吗?
最近我感到非常沮丧和焦虑。在看到Astra在ARC-AGI-3上取得突破,并且在许多其他基准测试中也表现出色后,很难相信到今年年底,或者最迟到明年,我们不会拥有一种强大的通用人工智能(AGI)。
我不明白为什么我们没有看到对进一步发展人工智能能力的暂停有如此强烈的呼声。即使我们目前还不知道如何在多国层面协调和执行这样的暂停,但似乎我们并没有花费任何精力去思考如何做到这一点。
我看到很多人将前沿公司的警告视为“市场营销和炒作”。我自己无法将我眼前所见、每天在工作和日常生活中互动的能力称为“市场营销和炒作”。
像最近OpenAI首席科学家发表的《外星思维》这样的文章并没有让我感到好受。到目前为止,我们唯一的希望似乎就是希望其他前沿实验室能自愿放慢发展速度。而且,尽管对齐问题(alignment)远未解决(如果它能被解决的话),但目前的趋势似乎是我们将急速朝向超人类智能(RSI)发展,因为否则会有人比我们更早实现。
有没有人也有这样的不安?我发现自己每天都很难去想其他事情。即使超智能(ASI)不会给人类带来灭顶之灾,但在不到一年的时间里,从当前的世界适应到“超智能现在存在”这一点,确实让人感到不安。看起来我们的生活即将一夜之间改变,而且可能不是朝着好的方向发展,我为我的亲人感到担忧,也为那些对发生的事情和其影响毫无头绪的人感到担忧。
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I'm feeling extremely depressed and anxious lately. After seeing Astra saturating ARC-AGI-3 and blowing through many other benchmarks, it's hard to believe we won't have a strong form of AGI by the end of this year, or the next one at the latest.<p>I don't understand why we're not seeing a MASSIVE clamor for a pause in the further development of AI strength. Even if we don't know how to coordinate and enforce such a pause yet (at the multi-nation level), it seems we're not spending any effort in figuring how to.<p>I see a lot of people dismissing warnings from the frontier companies themselves as nothing but "marketing and generating hype". I myself can't call "marketing and hype" the kind of capability I see before my very eyes and interact with every day, at work and in everyday life otherwise.<p>Posts like the recent "An Alien Mind" by the chief scientist of OpenAI don't make me feel any better. It seems the best hope we have so far is to just hope other frontier labs will voluntarily slow down. And, regardless of the fact that alignment is nowhere near solved (if it can even be solved), it seems the current path is that we will rush toward RSI because otherwise someone else will do it first.<p>Does anyone feel uneasy in this way? I find it hard to think about anything else every single day. Even if ASI doesn't doom mankind, it's very unsettling to have to adapt from the world as it currently is, to "ASI now exists" in less than a year possibly. It seems life as we know it is about to change overnight, and probably not in a good way, and I fear for my loved ones, for all of the people that have no idea of what is going on and what the implications of this will be.